As has been our tradition these many years, it’s time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number your predictions, […]
Register Your Predictions For 2019!
Draft Realist Catholic Climate Declaration: Please Share!
Here we are, friends. As promised, Draft 2 of the Realist Catholic Climate Declaration. Draft 1 is at the bottom, with a summary of critiques. The goal is to have something short, […]
More On Coronavirus Model Accuracy
This post is mainly for me to have a place to collect model accuracy stories. If you see ones I missed, please add them to the comments. Well, Dr. Birx just said […]
An Unneeded Prophecy: The Warning, Or The Illumination of Conscience
Long-time readers will know I’m a sucker for end-time prophecies, the subject being of obvious fascination (forecasts of every kind are my avocation). Every time a priest in his wisdom begins a […]
Some Coronavirus Predictions Are Coming True
CDC Correctly Predicts Second Wave CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus this winter is likely to be worse https://t.co/SVbe9O0gMr — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 21, 2020 Also: CDC Director: Next […]
Coronavirus Update IV — Take A Deep Breath — If You Still Can
Apologies for the duplicate email! I hit the wrong button yesterday and published the incomplete update meant for today. All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, […]
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]
Everything Is Already In The Simulation
On Drudge a while back was linked the article “Pandemic ‘could wipe out 900 million people,’ experts warn” in some tabloid or sensationalistic rag (New York Times?). A chilling simulation has revealed […]
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