By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their parametric posterior […]
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” No, they don’t. I used every as in every. “P-values are fine […]
Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) “Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis” (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB; there are […]
This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron Christensen’s 2005 […]
Some comments on the JAMA: Internal Medicine article “An International Perspective on Drugs for Cancer: The Best of Times, the Worst of Times” by Richard Lehman. Drugs increase fast, and there is […]
I was asked to comment on a post by Dan Simpson exploring the Bernstein-von Mises theorem. This post fits in with the Data Science class, a happy coincidence, and has been so […]
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
Video Link The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a […]
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