From reader Alistair Haimes comes this note about the Imperial College model, a note which will illustrate the tyranny of models. So, the errors in the Imperial College covid-19 model. It sounds […]
The Tyranny Of Models
More On Coronavirus Model Accuracy
This post is mainly for me to have a place to collect model accuracy stories. If you see ones I missed, please add them to the comments. Well, Dr. Birx just said […]
Lockdowns Saved Trillions! …. Say Models
Joe Nocera — read his Lockdowns Haven’t Proved They’re Worth the Havoc — sent us an article from the Washington Post which discusses how much money the lockdowns saved us. Economists at […]
On Cause In Probability Models
Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title “When Cause Is Not A Cause — Another Anti-P-Value Argument”. The post itself is extracted and modified from this set of […]
Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say
In Dr. Fauci We Trust. #TrustFauci pic.twitter.com/zxSgmSjHQ3 — Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) May 12, 2020 “Trust science!” says Deng (lower down in the thread). Isn’t science self-correcting? “Yes, that’s why it’s so great.” […]
Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More
Right after yesterday’s post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his “simple rules”. It repeats a […]
Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?
Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the way. They […]
Coronavirus Update VII — We’ve Got Models (Update)
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, and Bayes Theorem […]
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