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UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2: Quid Est Veritas? (blog, Substack). COMING SOON OLD ORIGINAL CLASS New Paper! Reality-Based Probability…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Induction & Intellection: Excerpt From Uncertainty
Induction is badly misunderstood. Here is an abridged and augmented excerpt (how's that!) from Uncertainty's Chapter 3. There is no knowledge more certain than that provided by induction. Without induction,…
Posted inPhilosophy
Under-determination, Quus, And Why It’s Cause That Counts (And With A Taste Of Grue)
Turns out Arthur C. Clarke was on to something (who told him?). See, scientists, via one of the NASA Rovers, found this device on Mars. It is roundish, the color…
Posted inBook review Statistics
Preface to Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics
The book is now at a 15% discount at Amazon (I apologize for the price). Buy today. And buy again tomorrow! This will be linked permanently on the book's official…
Posted inStatistics
It’s World Statistics Day! Death To P-Values, Hypothesis Tests, And False Ascriptions Of Cause! #StatsDay15
Who said the UN doesn't do anything useful? Courtesy of that august body, it's World Statistics Day! Official statistics help decision makers develop informed policies that impact millions of people.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Problem Of Grue Isn’t; Or, A Gruesome Non-Paradox About Induction
Skepticism about induction happens only among academic philosophers, and only in print. Tell an induction skeptic to take a long walk off a short dock or hint that his health…
Classic Posts
Featured Articles Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2 The Great Global Warming—A.K.A.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
There Is No Such Thing As Intrinsic Probability
This is less fun than looking at the so-called principle of indifference, which you must read first, and I realize we're wading into the depths and on a Friday, but…
