Classic Posts
Comment policy I’ve been receiving many complaints about the comments. I dislike doing this, but I’m changing the policy. If … Continue Reading Classic Posts
Probability’s Empirical Bias
Bit of logic (a favorite example) from our teacher Lewis Carroll: given “All cats understand French and that some chickens … Continue Reading Probability’s Empirical Bias
Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
Update See below for main update. The odds of Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) being the next Pope are 1,000 to 1. You may say this is small, but it’s orders of magnitude a better chance than you have, or … Continue Reading Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
A classic column, edited and updated. If you are a gambler, you’ll be delighted to learn that there is a way to create a system of wagers such that you are guaranteed to win money no matter what happens. The … Continue Reading Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
