Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
This post first appeared sometime before 2012, but I lost the original date due to the hacking. If you are … Continue Reading Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
Classic Posts
Classic Articles There is over ten years worth of material on the blog on wide-ranging subjects. First stop is the … Continue Reading Classic Posts
Probability’s Empirical Bias
Bit of logic (a favorite example) from our teacher Lewis Carroll: given “All cats understand French and that some chickens … Continue Reading Probability’s Empirical Bias
Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
Update See below for main update. The odds of Father Dougal Maguire (Craggy Island) being the next Pope are 1,000 to 1. You may say this is small, but it’s orders of magnitude a better chance than you have, or … Continue Reading Paddy Power’s Pope Predictions—Update
