William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

The Real Anti-Science Crowd

Testing another conservative brain.

Testing another conservative brain.

People are starting to notice that not all is well in Science. This is happening not only among scientists themselves, not only among Realists like the readers of this blog, and not only among neo-cons like those at the Weekly Standard (see below), but also among stalwart progressives such as Chris Mooney at the Washington Post.

I was shocked to see the article “Liberals deny science, too” by Mooney. Of course, he’s very forgiving and doesn’t really throw himself into his subject. He writes only about a narrow new study:

The study is far from the authoritative word on the subject of left wing science denial. Rather, it is a provocative, narrow look at the question. In particular, the study examined a group of left wing people — academic sociologists — and evaluated their views on a fairly esoteric scientific topic. The specific issue was whether the evolutionary history of human beings has an important influence on our present day behavior. In other words, whether or not we are “blank slates,” wholly shaped by the culture around us.

Lot of blank slaters prefer to believe in the ultimate perfectibility of man. The new study wasn’t really: it was only yet another in a long line of questionnaires passed off as research.

The new study, by University of Texas-Brownville sociologist Mark Horowitz and two colleagues, surveyed 155 academic sociologists. 56.7 percent of the sample was liberal, another 28.6 percent was identified as radical, and only 4.8 percent were conservative. Horowitz, who describes himself as a politically radical, social-justice oriented researcher, said he wanted to probe their views of the possible evolutionary underpinnings of various human behaviors.

And there it is: social-justice oriented researcher. Nothing pro-science about that. Activists at universities are nothing new, but they are growing in strength and number. One article notes “It is not uncommon for social psychologists to list ‘the promotion of social justice’ as a research topic on their CVs, or on their university homepages.”

Science is not the goal of an activist, who decides his findings in advance and only collects what he thinks is confirmatory evidence which he can share with the world. Regular readers already know about the routine asinine uses of statistics (I really have to update this list).

Andrew Ferguson has a relevant piece “The New Phrenology: How liberal psychopundits understand the conservative brain.” We’ve long noted electronic phrenology devices are ubiquitous among researchers (see this, this, this, this, and many more).

Ferguson (where have you heard this before?):

The studies rely on the principle that has informed the social sciences for more than a generation: If a researcher with a Ph.D. can corral enough undergraduates into a campus classroom and, by giving them a little bit of money or a class credit, get them to do something—fill out a questionnaire, let’s say, or pretend they’re in a specific real-world situation that the researcher has thought up—the young scholars will (unconsciously!) yield general truths about the human animal; scientific truths. The scientific truths revealed in Edsall’s “academic critique of the right” demonstrate that “the rich and powerful” lack compassion, underestimate the suffering of others, have little sympathy for the disadvantaged, and are far more willing to act unethically than the less rich and not so powerful.

Here’s the kicker, which regular readers will also recognize:

After many regression analyses and much hierarchical linear modeling, the professors discovered that their conclusion matched their hypothesis…

Science is now, in many areas, just another branch of politics. We’re coming back to this topic later, of course.

Oh, and don’t forget the biggest science denial: global warming. The theory of CO2-enhanced positive feedback which motivates most climatologists has been incorporated into all major climate models. These models have been making lousy predictions (of the future) for twenty to thirty years now: the models have ran hot and are running hotter. This implies the theories which underlie these models is in error. Scientifically, therefore, it is best to doubt the veracity of both the models and the theories. Anybody denying this, in ignorance of the physics driving the climate, is anti-science. Most anti-global-warming-science folks are progressives. This is because they believe in the solution to global warming and are largely ignorant of physics.

Update When Charles Murray was asked about the 20th anniversary of The Bell Curve, this is what he said.

I’m not going to try to give you a balanced answer to that question, but take it in the spirit you asked it–the thing that stands out in my own mind, even though it may not be the most important. I first expressed it in the Afterword I wrote for the softcover edition of “The Bell Curve.” It is this: The reaction to “The Bell Curve” exposed a profound corruption of the social sciences that has prevailed since the 1960s. “The Bell Curve” is a relentlessly moderate book — both in its use of evidence and in its tone — and yet it was excoriated in remarkably personal and vicious ways, sometimes by eminent academicians who knew very well they were lying. Why? Because the social sciences have been in the grip of a political orthodoxy that has had only the most tenuous connection with empirical reality, and too many social scientists think that threats to the orthodoxy should be suppressed by any means necessary. Corruption is the only word for it.

Now that I’ve said that, I’m also thinking of all the other social scientists who have come up to me over the years and told me what a wonderful book “The Bell Curve” is. But they never said it publicly. So corruption is one thing that ails the social sciences. Cowardice is another.

Update Here we go: The American Sociological Association sets up a “task force” on global warming. Not a physicist among them. On the other hand, maybe they can do “studies” like this one: “Science or Science Fiction? Professionals’ Discursive Construction of Climate Change”. Turns out “the” Consensus, even after the standard political throat clearing, isn’t as strong as advertised. Who knew?

Update Why Some of the Worst Attacks on Social Science Have Come From Liberals. Author is part of the problem. Why? She doesn’t realize the problem is in these two sentences:

When Dreger criticizes liberal politicization of science, she isn’t doing so from the seat of a trolling conservative. Well before she dove into some of the biggest controversies in science and activism, she earned her progressive bona fides.

“Man Stupid, Protect Earth.” New Year Message From Koko The Talking Gorilla Answered By Larry The Loquacious Lobster. Update!

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Update Don’t miss the astounding update at the bottom.

Koko, the angry talking gorilla, has, according to its handlers NOE Conservation and The Gorilla Foundation, delivered a New Years Message to one and to all! We are told by its minders that it said, “I am gorilla, I am flowers, animals. I am Nature. Koko love man. Earth Koko love.”

Koko, knowing it is a gorilla yet curiously identifying itself as a flower, went on to say, “But man stupid…stupid! Koko sorry, Koko cry. Time hurry. Fix Earth! Help Earth! Hurry! Protect Earth. Nature watches you. Thank you.”

Analysts expressed surprise Koko was pagan, with many having argued in the past that Koko was “friendly” to Scientology. Yet a spokesman for the Gorilla Foundation emphasized that Koko had the ability to “communicate with humans in sign language”. That plus the gorilla’s belief that Nature was “watching” us removed all doubt about Koko’s religious status.

After Koko finished, Reporters immediately contacted the Corporate Crustacean Continuum for the annual rebuttal from Larry, “The Loquacious Lobster”. Larry has been giving its rebuttal to news events of all kinds for nearly fifty years running, and it’s always a media event.

Larry communicates in a form of modified sign language, mainly by wiggling his antennae, and, given he hasn’t a face, by using a friendly star fish as punctuation. The video and translation is below. Readers are warned that Larry has become old and crotchety: this transcript has not been expurgated.

Official Message from Larry the Loquacious Lobster:

Koko think’s it’s a flower? Koko’s an ass. Koko is two bananas short of a bunch. Only an monkey would think that Nature is watching us. This is what happens when you swing from vines. You flounder around and fall on your head. A lot. I’m glad I’m a fish. And don’t get me started on lobsters not being fish, you ichthyophobe.

Fix Earth? It’s going to take more than a sturgeon to fix monkeys who think the earth is in trouble. And what’s with all this hand waving? This isn’t talking. It isn’t even dumb mimicry. I’ve met unschooled parrotfish with more to say. I’d rather be French kissed by a lamprey than be forced to listen to a monkey who thinks it can talk. The coincidence between a monkey putting its finger up its nose and language is a fluke. And, believe me: I know flukes. Flukes aren’t even fit for sushi. Talking monkeys! We ought to grab a pike and make Koko’s trainers walk the plankton.

That’s it. Get out of here and leave me alone. Where’s my nurse? She’s late with my peanut butter and jellyfish sandwich.

Scientists have not only taught gorillas like Koko sign language, they have also been able to teach them that they will die.

Update “What Do Talking Apes Really Tell Us?”

A press release from the foundation announced that Koko the gorilla—the main subject of its research on ape language ability, capable in sign language and a celebrity in her own right—“was quiet and looked very thoughtful” when she heard about [Robin] Williams’ death, and later became “somber” as the news sank in.

The answer to the titular question is that people are even more insane than previously suspected.

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Different Goals Of Philosophy and Theology

This may be proved in three ways. The first...

This may be proved in three ways. The first…

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT.

Previous post.

The rest of Book Two is mapped out.

Chapter 4 That the philosopher and the theologian treat of creatures in different ways (alternate translation)

[1] Now it is evident from what has been said that the teaching of the Christian faith treats of creatures in so far as they reflect a certain likeness of God, and forasmuch as error concerning them leads to error about God. And so they are viewed from a different point by the aforesaid teaching, and by that of human philosophy. For human philosophy considers them as such; wherefore we find that the different parts of philosophy correspond to the different genera of things

[2] On the other hand the Christian faith does not consider them as such, for instance it considers fire not as such, but as representing the sublimity of God, and as being directed to Him in any way whatsoever. For as it is stated (Ecclus. xlii. 16, 17), Full of the glory of the Lord is His work. Hath not the Lord made the saints to declare all His wonderful works? Hence also the philosopher and the believer consider different matters about creatures. For the philosopher considers such things as belong to them by their own nature: for instance that fire tends upwards. Whereas the believer considers about creatures only such things as belong to them in respect of their relation to God: for instance that they are created by God, are subject to God, and so forth.

Notes There is a proper difference between theology and philosophy, which nobody disputes.

[3] Wherefore it argues not imperfection in the teaching of faith, if it overlooks many properties of things: such as the shape of the heavens, and the quality of its movement: since neither does the physicist consider the same characters of a line as the geometrician, but only such as are accidental thereto, as the term of a natural body.

Notes The lines—get it? get it?—between physicists and geometricians are blurred these days as any string theorist will tell you, but you get the idea.

[4] Any matters, however, that the philosopher and the believer in common consider about creatures, are delivered through different principles on the one hand and on the other. For the philosopher takes his argument from the proper causes of things, whereas the believer has recourse to the First Cause, for instance because it has been thus delivered by God, or because it conduces to God’s glory, or because God’s power is infinite. Hence (the teaching of faith) should be called the greatest wisdom, since it considers the highest cause, according to the saying of Deut. iv. 6: For this is your wisdom and understanding in the sight of nations.

Wherefore human philosophy is a handmaid to her as mistress. For this reason sometimes divine wisdom argues from the principles of human philosophy: since also among philosophers the First Philosophy makes use of the teachings of all sciences in order to establish its purpose. Hence again both teachings do not follow the same order. For in the teaching of philosophy which considers creatures in themselves and leads us from them to the knowledge of God, the first consideration is about creatures, and the last of God: whereas in the teaching of faith which considers creatures only in their relation to God, the consideration about God takes the first place, and that about creatures the last. And thus it is more perfect: as being more like God’s knowledge, for He beholds other things by knowing Himself.

Notes In comments to last weeks’ post YOS rightly emphasized that there is a big (I’d say infinite) difference between the first activation of a potential and the secondary activations of potentials, i.e. between the singular primary causes and the myriad secondary causes. Physicists deals only with the latter. Metaphysicists deal with the former. Theologians deal with the consequences of both.

[5] Wherefore, according to this order, after what has been said in the First Book about God in Himself, it remains for us to treat of the things which proceed from Him.

Chapter 5 Order of the things to be said (alternate translation)

[1] WE shall treat of these things in the following order. First we shall discourse of the bringing forth of things into being: secondly, of their distinction: thirdly, of the nature of these same things brought forth and distinct from one another, so far as it concerns the truth of faith.

Notes Sounds like it’s going to be a lot of fun!

Stream: Will 2016 Be the Year We Approach The Great and Terrible Singularity?

But it has to be alive! It's an Apple Corporation product!

But it has to be alive! It’s an Apple Corporation product!

Will super-intelligent computers soon spell our doom, or have futurists forgotten something fundamental? Hint: it’s the latter. Go to the Stream to read the rest.

The chilling news is that killer robots are marching this way. Paypal founder Elon Musk and physicist Stephen Hawking assure us Artificial Intelligence (AI) is more to be feared than a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Google’s futurist Ray Kurzweil and Generational Dynamics’s John J. Xenakis are sure The Singularity will soon hit.

When any of these things happens, humanity is doomed. Or enslaved. Or cast into some pretty deep and dark kimchee. Or so we’re told.

It make sense to worry about the government creating self-mobilized killing machines, or the government doing anything, really, but what’s The Singularity? Remember The Terminator? An artificially intelligent computer network became self-aware and so hyper-intelligent that it decided “our fate in a microsecond: extermination”. Sort of like that. Computers will become so fast and smart that they will soon realize they don’t need us to help them progress. They’ll be able to design their own improvements and at such a stunning rate that there will be an “intelligence explosion”, and maybe literal explosions, too, if James Cameron was on to anything.

Xenakis says, “The Singularity cannot be stopped. It’s as inevitable as sunrise.” But what if we decided to stop building computers right now? Xenakis thought about that: “Even if we tried, we’d soon be faced by an attack by an army of autonomous super-intelligent computer soldiers manufactured in China or India or Europe or Russia or somewhere else.”

As I said, we surely will build machines, i.e. robots, to do our killing for us, but robots with computers “minds”, will never be like humans. Why? Because computer “minds” will forever be stuck behind human minds. The dream of “strong” AI where computers become superior creatures is and must be just that: a dream. I’ll explain why in a moment. Machines will become better at certain tasks than humans, but this has long been true.

Consider that one of the first computers, the abacus, though it had no batteries and “ran” on muscle power, could calculate sums easier and faster than could humans alone. These devices are surely computers in the sense that they take “states”, i.e. fixed positions of its beads, that have meaning when examined by a rational intelligence, i.e. a human being. But nobody would claim an abacus can think.

Why can’t there be a singularity? Go to the Stream to find out.

Oh, we have lots more to do on this topic. This is only a teaser.

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